It never sees a price
No odds, lines, totals or market data are inputs to any ClutchTip card. Every call below was lodged before kick-off from team, player and form data alone, and is shown whether it won or lost. The favourite is joined afterwards, for this page only.
ClutchTip 46–28 (62.0%) against the pre-game favourite's 47–27 (63.5%) over the same 74 games. When a market-blind engine lands on the favourite it has arrived there independently; that happened in 59 of 74 games (80%). In the other 15 it disagreed with a market carrying the weight of every dollar wagered, and went 7–8.
Week by week
Same games, same grading. Agreements are games where the engine's pick was the favourite; disagreements show the engine's record in brackets.
| Week | Engine | ClutchTip | Favourite | Agreed | Disagreed (engine record) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Reasoning engine | 11–4 | 11–4 | 13 | 2 (1–1) |
| Week 2 | Reasoning engine | 8–7 | 10–5 | 11 | 4 (1–3) |
| Week 3 | Fitted model | 11–4 | 8–7 | 12 | 3 (3–0) |
| Week 4 | Fitted model + Reasoning engine | 9–6 | 9–6 | 13 | 2 (1–1) |
| Week 5 | Fitted model | 7–7 | 9–5 | 10 | 4 (1–3) |
| Season | 75 games | 46–28 | 47–27 | 59 | 15 (7–8) |
By engine
Weeks 1 and 2 were called by the reasoning engine, working from injury reports, form and matchups with no historical model behind it. From Week 3 the fitted model took over: trained on every NFL game since 2002, calibrated on the 2025 season, no odds.
| Engine | Games | ClutchTip | Favourite | Disagreements won |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reasoning engine | 31 | 20–11 | 22–9 | 2–4 of 6 |
| Fitted model | 43 | 26–17 | 25–18 | 5–4 of 9 |
The disagreements
The only place a market-blind engine can be right where the market is wrong.
| Wk | Game | ClutchTip | Favourite | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Titans v Jets | Jets EDGE 56% | Titans | 10-23 | WIN |
| W1 | Chiefs v Broncos | Broncos STRONG 62% | Chiefs | 31-10 | LOSS |
| W2 | Jets v Packers | Jets STRONG 65% | Packers | 17-20 | LOSS |
| W2 | Texans v Bengals | Bengals EDGE 58% | Texans | 6-20 | WIN |
| W2 | Patriots v Steelers | Steelers STRONG 71% | Patriots | 20-3 | LOSS |
| W2 | Broncos v Jaguars | Jaguars STRONG 64% | Broncos | 20-13 | LOSS |
| W3 | Browns v Panthers | Browns HIGH VARIANCE 54% | Panthers | 21-18 | WIN |
| W3 | Steelers v Bengals | Steelers STRONG 65% | Bengals | 30-27 | WIN |
| W3 | Bears v Eagles | Bears STRONG 65% | Eagles | 27-7 | WIN |
| W4 | Giants v Cardinals | Giants EDGE 56% | Cardinals | 36-24 | WIN |
| W4 | Raiders v Chiefs | Raiders HIGH VARIANCE 50% | Chiefs | 27-30 | LOSS |
| W5 | Saints v Vikings | Saints EDGE 56% | Vikings | 13-23 | LOSS |
| W5 | Jets v Browns | Browns PREMIUM 78% | Jets | 17-12 | LOSS |
| W5 | Chargers v Broncos | Chargers EDGE 56% | Broncos | 17-23 | LOSS |
| W5 | Falcons v Ravens | Ravens EDGE 61% | Falcons | 23-30 | WIN |
Reading this audit
The overall record moves with the market's, in a season where favourites are winning. Two numbers say something about the engine itself. The agreement rate shows it reconstructs the market's ranking from data alone, without ever seeing a price. The disagreement record is where it can add anything a favourite-backer doesn't already have.
Three weeks is a small sample and the disagreement record will swing. It is published every week regardless, losses at the same weight as wins. Favourite is the pre-game moneyline favourite from published bet365 lines; the closing spread is shown for context. Ties score half.
Game by game
Every card, the favourite and its spread, the result for both. Disagreements are shaded. Scores are home–away.
| Wk | Match | Tipped | Tier | Favourite | Spread | Score | ClutchTip | Favourite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Rams v 49ers | Rams | EDGE | Rams | -3.5 | 7-27 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W1 | Panthers v Bears | Bears | STRONG | Bears | -3 | 37-59 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Colts v Ravens | Ravens | STRONG | Ravens | -3 | 23-41 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Steelers v Falcons | Steelers | PREMIUM | Steelers | -6.5 | 20-13 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Jaguars v Browns | Jaguars | STRONG | Jaguars | -8.5 | 34-10 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Bengals v Buccaneers | Bengals | EDGE | Bengals | -3.5 | 33-27 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Titans v Jets | Jets | EDGE | Titans | -1.5 | 10-23 | WIN | LOSS |
| W1 | Lions v Saints | Lions | STRONG | Lions | -7 | 31-30 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Texans v Bills | Bills | EDGE | Bills | -1.5 | 31-36 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Chargers v Cardinals | Chargers | PREMIUM | Chargers | -9.5 | 14-26 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W1 | Vikings v Packers | Vikings | STRONG | Vikings | -1.5 | 39-22 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Raiders v Dolphins | Raiders | EDGE | Raiders | -3 | 27-13 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Eagles v Commanders | Eagles | STRONG | Eagles | -5.5 | 24-22 | WIN | WIN |
| W1 | Giants v Cowboys | Cowboys | STRONG | Cowboys | -3 | 28-20 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W1 | Chiefs v Broncos | Broncos | STRONG | Chiefs | -2.5 | 31-10 | LOSS | WIN |
| W2 | Bills v Lions | Bills | STRONG | Bills | -4.5 | 41-31 | WIN | WIN |
| W2 | Falcons v Panthers | Panthers | STRONG | Panthers | -2.5 | 3-34 | WIN | WIN |
| W2 | Ravens v Saints | Ravens | PREMIUM | Ravens | -8.5 | 17-24 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W2 | Jets v Packers | Jets | STRONG | Packers | -3.5 | 17-20 | LOSS | WIN |
| W2 | Bears v Vikings | Bears | PREMIUM | Bears | -4.5 | 3-9 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W2 | Texans v Bengals | Bengals | EDGE | Texans | -2.5 | 6-20 | WIN | LOSS |
| W2 | Patriots v Steelers | Steelers | STRONG | Patriots | -5.5 | 20-3 | LOSS | WIN |
| W2 | Buccaneers v Browns | Buccaneers | STRONG | Buccaneers | -8.5 | 19-23 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W2 | Titans v Eagles | Eagles | PREMIUM | Eagles | -6.5 | 20-24 | WIN | WIN |
| W2 | Broncos v Jaguars | Jaguars | STRONG | Broncos | -2.5 | 20-13 | LOSS | WIN |
| W2 | Chargers v Raiders | Chargers | EDGE | Chargers | -6.5 | 14-26 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W2 | Cardinals v Seahawks | Seahawks | EDGE | Seahawks | -3.5 | 7-31 | WIN | WIN |
| W2 | 49ers v Dolphins | 49ers | EDGE | 49ers | -13.5 | 35-13 | WIN | WIN |
| W2 | Cowboys v Commanders | Cowboys | EDGE | Cowboys | -4.5 | 37-20 | WIN | WIN |
| W2 | Chiefs v Colts | Chiefs | EDGE | Chiefs | -6.5 | 33-30 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Bills v Chargers | Bills | PREMIUM | Bills | -7 | 24-16 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Browns v Panthers | Browns | HIGH VARIANCE | Panthers | -2.5 | 21-18 | WIN | LOSS |
| W3 | Lions v Jets | Lions | STRONG | Lions | -6.5 | 31-24 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Colts v Texans | Texans | PREMIUM | Texans | -2.5 | 19-17 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W3 | Dolphins v Chiefs | Chiefs | PREMIUM | Chiefs | -8.5 | 10-24 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Giants v Titans | Giants | STRONG | Giants | -5.5 | 12-7 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Steelers v Bengals | Steelers | STRONG | Bengals | -3.5 | 30-27 | WIN | LOSS |
| W3 | Commanders v Seahawks | Seahawks | PREMIUM | Seahawks | -6.5 | 33-31 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W3 | Jaguars v Patriots | Jaguars | HIGH VARIANCE | Jaguars | -2.5 | 35-6 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Buccaneers v Vikings | Vikings | PREMIUM | Vikings | -2.5 | 16-23 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | 49ers v Cardinals | 49ers | STRONG | 49ers | -8.5 | 36-30 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Cowboys v Ravens | Ravens | PREMIUM | Ravens | -3.5 | 31-34 | WIN | WIN |
| W3 | Saints v Raiders | Saints | HIGH VARIANCE | Saints | -3.5 | 27-35 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W3 | Broncos v Rams | Rams | PREMIUM | Rams | -2.5 | 30-26 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W3 | Bears v Eagles | Bears | STRONG | Eagles | -3.5 | 27-7 | WIN | LOSS |
| W4 | Buccaneers v Packers | Packers | PREMIUM | Packers | -3 | 14-17 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Texans v Cowboys | Texans | EDGE | Texans | -2.5 | 30-34 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W4 | Ravens v Titans | Ravens | PREMIUM | Ravens | -11.5 | 24-18 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Eagles v Rams | Rams | STRONG | Rams | -3.5 | 20-24 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Bengals v Jaguars | Bengals | EDGE | Bengals | -2.5 | 17-22 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W4 | Bears v Jets | Bears | PREMIUM | Bears | -3.5 | 23-12 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Bills v Patriots | Bills | PREMIUM | Bills | -7 | 26-29 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W4 | Giants v Cardinals | Giants | EDGE | Cardinals | -2.5 | 36-24 | WIN | LOSS |
| W4 | Vikings v Dolphins | Vikings | PREMIUM | Vikings | -9.5 | 15-10 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Raiders v Chiefs | Raiders | HIGH VARIANCE | Chiefs | -4.5 | 27-30 | LOSS | WIN |
| W4 | 49ers v Broncos | 49ers | PREMIUM | 49ers | -2.5 | 24-14 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Seahawks v Chargers | Seahawks | PREMIUM | Seahawks | -7 | 30-23 | WIN | WIN |
| W4 | Panthers v Lions | Lions | PREMIUM | Lions | -3.5 | 32-26 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W4 | Saints v Falcons | Saints | EDGE | Saints | -1.5 | 24-45 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W4 | Commanders v Colts | Colts | STRONG | Colts | -4.5 | 13-30 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Cowboys v Buccaneers | Cowboys | PREMIUM | Cowboys | -8.5 | 16-24 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W5 | Jaguars v Eagles | Jaguars | PREMIUM | Jaguars | -7.5 | 19-17 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Saints v Vikings | Saints | EDGE | Vikings | -2 | 13-23 | LOSS | WIN |
| W5 | Dolphins v Bengals | Bengals | PREMIUM | Bengals | -7 | 24-31 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Patriots v Raiders | Patriots | EDGE | Patriots | -3.5 | 45-17 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Titans v Texans | Texans | STRONG | Texans | -6.5 | 3-26 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Jets v Browns | Browns | PREMIUM | Jets | -2.5 | 17-12 | LOSS | WIN |
| W5 | Steelers v Colts | Steelers | EDGE | Steelers | -3 | 34-22 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Packers v Bears | Bears | PREMIUM | Bears | -1.5 | 31-7 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W5 | Commanders v Giants | Commanders | EDGE | Commanders | -3.5 | 27-27 | DRAW | DRAW |
| W5 | Chargers v Broncos | Chargers | EDGE | Broncos | -3.5 | 17-23 | LOSS | WIN |
| W5 | Cardinals v Lions | Lions | PREMIUM | Lions | -5.5 | 21-45 | WIN | WIN |
| W5 | Seahawks v 49ers | Seahawks | STRONG | Seahawks | -3 | 29-32 | LOSS | LOSS |
| W5 | Falcons v Ravens | Ravens | EDGE | Falcons | -3.5 | 23-30 | WIN | LOSS |
| W5 | Rams v Bills | Rams | EDGE | Rams | -3.5 | 34-37 | LOSS | LOSS |