{
  "name": "ClutchTip",
  "description": "The AI Sports Almanac: market-blind sports predictions, graded in public.",
  "url": "https://www.clutchtip.com/",
  "as_of": "2026-10-18",
  "operator": "Joint Projects Australia Pty Ltd",
  "contact": "info@clutchtip.com",
  "how_to_cite": "ClutchTip public ledger, as at 2026-10-16, https://www.clutchtip.com/cite",
  "method": {
    "full_inclusion": true,
    "lodged_before_first_game_of_round": true,
    "revised_after_lodgement": false,
    "odds_used_to_form_picks": false,
    "closing_odds_used_for": "after-the-fact market audits only"
  },
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "nrl",
      "competition": "NRL 2026",
      "correct": 141.0,
      "games": 204,
      "accuracy": 0.6912,
      "finals": {
        "correct": 3.0,
        "games": 6
      },
      "draws": "scored 0.5",
      "ledger": "https://www.clutchtip.com/results-nrl",
      "market_audit": {
        "url": "https://www.clutchtip.com/market-audit-nrl",
        "priced_games": 203,
        "engine_accuracy": "69.0%",
        "closing_favourite_accuracy": "62.6%",
        "engine_return_at_close": "+9.0%",
        "favourite_return_at_close": "-10.3%",
        "contrarian_record": "24 / 35 (68.6%)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "afl",
      "competition": "AFL 2026",
      "correct": 143.5,
      "games": 199,
      "accuracy": 0.7211,
      "finals": {
        "correct": 6.0,
        "games": 10
      },
      "draws": "scored 0.5",
      "ledger": "https://www.clutchtip.com/results-afl",
      "market_audit": {
        "url": "https://www.clutchtip.com/market-audit-afl",
        "priced_games": 198,
        "engine_accuracy": "72.0%",
        "closing_favourite_accuracy": "76.0%",
        "engine_return_at_close": "+5.7%",
        "favourite_return_at_close": "+1.9%",
        "contrarian_record": "15 / 38 (39.5%)"
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "nfl",
      "competition": "NFL 2026",
      "wins": 46,
      "losses": 28,
      "ties": 1,
      "graded": 75,
      "status": "provisional",
      "ledger": "https://www.clutchtip.com/results-nfl",
      "market_audit": {
        "url": "https://www.clutchtip.com/market-audit-nfl",
        "priced_games": 74,
        "engine_accuracy": "62.2%",
        "pregame_favourite_accuracy": "63.5%",
        "agreed_with_favourite": "59 of 74",
        "disagreement_record": "7-8",
        "odds_used_to_form_picks": false
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "worldcup",
      "competition": "FIFA World Cup 2026",
      "record": "90 calls",
      "accuracy": "68.3%",
      "status": "Complete",
      "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/worldcup"
    },
    {
      "id": "super-rugby",
      "competition": "Super Rugby Pacific 2026",
      "record": "45 / 57",
      "accuracy": "78.9%",
      "status": "Complete",
      "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/dashboard-super-rugby"
    },
    {
      "id": "nations",
      "competition": "Nations Championship",
      "record": "10 / 12",
      "accuracy": "83.3%",
      "status": "Resumes November",
      "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/nations-championship"
    },
    {
      "id": "nba",
      "competition": "NBA 2025–26",
      "record": "425 – 152",
      "accuracy": "73.6%",
      "status": "Complete",
      "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/nba-results"
    },
    {
      "id": "boxing",
      "competition": "Boxing",
      "record": "4 / 5",
      "accuracy": "80%",
      "status": "One card",
      "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/boxing"
    },
    {
      "id": "furlong",
      "competition": "Furlong — Australian thoroughbred racing 2026",
      "sport": "horse racing",
      "status": "live, graded nightly",
      "as_of": "2026-10-17",
      "full_inclusion": true,
      "odds_used_to_form_picks": false,
      "top_pick": {
        "won": 588,
        "races_started": 2320,
        "win_rate": 0.253,
        "periods": [
          "2026-04-28/2026-08-11",
          "2026-09-02/2026-10-17"
        ]
      },
      "last_30_days": {
        "period": "2026-09-18/2026-10-17",
        "races": 1062,
        "avg_starters": 9.6,
        "scratchings": "removed, field re-ranked",
        "top_pick_won": 0.245,
        "top_pick_placed": 0.578,
        "winner_in_top2": 0.426,
        "winner_in_top3": 0.559,
        "winner_in_top4": 0.676,
        "random_four_baseline": 0.45,
        "first_two_home_were_top2": 0.126,
        "first_three_home_in_top4": 0.2,
        "first_four_home_were_top4": 0.072,
        "winner_rank_share": {
          "1": 0.245,
          "2": 0.181,
          "3": 0.134,
          "4": 0.117,
          "outside_top4": 0.324
        }
      },
      "top_pick_scratched": {
        "races": 205,
        "next_horse_won": 0.22,
        "winner_in_reranked_top3": 0.546
      },
      "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/furlong",
      "uk_ireland": "https://www.clutchtip.com/furlong-uk",
      "everest_2026": {
        "race": "Randwick R7 The TAB Everest, 2026-10-17",
        "top_pick": "Tempted, rank 1, 13.5%, barrier 1",
        "result": "won, SP $6.50",
        "first_five_in_furlong_top5": 4,
        "favourite": "Ka Ying Rising $1.35, rated 7th, ran 2nd"
      },
      "uk_ireland_live": {
        "page": "https://www.clutchtip.com/furlong-uk",
        "status": "live, graded each morning",
        "period": "2026-10-08/2026-10-17",
        "full_inclusion": true,
        "odds_used_to_form_picks": false,
        "lodged_before_off": true,
        "races": 410,
        "avg_runners": 9.7,
        "non_runners": "removed, field re-ranked",
        "top_pick_won": 124,
        "top_pick_win_rate": 0.302,
        "top_pick_placed": 0.646,
        "winner_in_top4": 0.737,
        "sp_favourite_win_rate": 0.366,
        "by_code": {
          "flat": {
            "races": 254,
            "win_rate": 0.291
          },
          "hurdle": {
            "races": 89,
            "win_rate": 0.303
          },
          "chase": {
            "races": 52,
            "win_rate": 0.308
          },
          "nh_flat": {
            "races": 15,
            "win_rate": 0.467
          }
        },
        "best_day": {
          "date": "2026-10-17",
          "note": "Champions Day, eight meetings",
          "races": 60,
          "top_pick_won": 25,
          "win_rate": 0.417,
          "placed": 0.7,
          "winner_in_top4": 0.817,
          "level_stake_units_at_sp": 25.7,
          "ascot": "Almeraq, Ombudsman and Fifth Column (22/1, Balmoral Handicap) all top pick and won"
        },
        "pre_live_test": {
          "races": 2147,
          "period": "2026-08-14/2026-10-08",
          "win_rate": 0.281
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "benchmarks": {
    "nrl_2026": [
      {
        "source": "ClutchTip, full slate (Rounds 1–27)",
        "record": "141 / 204",
        "accuracy": "69.1%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Brad Fittler, Channel 9 expert panel (1st)",
        "record": "139 / 204",
        "accuracy": "68.1%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Alphr (alphr.com.au)",
        "record": "133 / 204",
        "accuracy": "65.2%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Taylorp, top OLBG community tipster",
        "record": "selected",
        "accuracy": "65.9%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Closing-line favourite",
        "record": "127 / 203",
        "accuracy": "62.6%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Andrew Johns, Channel 9 expert panel (2nd)",
        "record": "125 / 204",
        "accuracy": "61.3%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Fitted XGBoost team model (ours)",
        "record": "102 / 164",
        "accuracy": "62.2%"
      },
      {
        "source": "Always tip the home side",
        "record": "—",
        "accuracy": "57.3%"
      }
    ],
    "racing_2026_reference": {
      "note": "Not like-for-like: comparators publish selective records and some use live odds; Furlong is full inclusion and odds-free. As at 2026-10-16.",
      "rows": [
        {
          "source": "Furlong (ClutchTip), every race, odds-free",
          "measure": "top pick win rate",
          "value": "25.3% on 2,320"
        },
        {
          "source": "Punt Legacy AI (uses live odds), 'The one to beat' selections",
          "measure": "win rate at Betfair BSP",
          "value": "41.1%"
        },
        {
          "source": "PuntyAI, selective 'Punty's Picks'",
          "measure": "win rate, settled at posted price",
          "value": "52% on 470 since 2026-08-24"
        },
        {
          "source": "Wintelligence, human analyst, Saturday metro",
          "measure": "top pick 1st or 2nd",
          "value": "43%"
        }
      ]
    }
  }
}